Ten-year change in sedentary behaviour, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiometabolic risk: independent associations and mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND We aimed to study the independent associations of 10-year change in sedentary behaviour (SB), moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and objectively measured cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), with concurrent change in clustered cardiometabolic risk and its individual components (waist circumference, fasting glucose, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides and blood pressure). We also determined whether associations were mediated by change in CRF (for SB and MVPA), waist circumference (for SB, MVPA and CRF) and dietary intake (for SB). METHODS A population-based sample of 425 adults (age (mean±SD) 55.83±9.40; 65% men) was followed prospectively for 9.62±0.52 years. Participants self-reported SB and MVPA and performed a maximal cycle ergometer test to estimate peak oxygen uptake at baseline (2002-2004) and follow-up (2012-2014). Multiple linear regression and the product of coefficients method were used to examine independent associations and mediation effects, respectively. RESULTS Greater increase in SB was associated with more detrimental change in clustered cardiometabolic risk, waist circumference, HDL cholesterol and triglycerides, independently of change in MVPA. Greater decrease in MVPA was associated with greater decrease in HDL cholesterol and increase in clustered cardiometabolic risk, waist circumference and fasting glucose, independent of change in SB. Greater decrease in CRF was associated with more detrimental change in clustered cardiometabolic risk and all individual components. Change in CRF mediated the associations of change in SB and MVPA with change in clustered cardiometabolic risk, waist circumference and, only for MVPA, HDL cholesterol. Change in waist circumference mediated the associations between change in CRF and change in clustered cardiometabolic risk, fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol and triglycerides. CONCLUSIONS A combination of decreasing SB and increasing MVPA, resulting in positive change in CRF, is likely to be most beneficial towards cardiometabolic health.